Decision-making frameworks

Decision-making frameworks for clearer thinking.

When a decision feels risky, emotional, or shaped by bias, a framework gives you a way to slow down and see what you are missing. Each one below targets a different kind of thinking trap — from overconfidence to sunk costs to short-term emotion — so you can choose the structure that fits the problem.

Choose a framework by the problem

  • Worried a plan will fail? Premortem Analysis — imagine the failure before it happens and name the risks you can still prevent.
  • First outcome looks good, but what comes next? Second-Order Thinking — map downstream consequences before a quick win becomes a long-term cost.
  • Too many options, no clear path? Inversion — ask what would guarantee failure, then remove those causes.
  • Fear of loss louder than the upside? Loss Aversion Reframe — separate the emotional pain from the expected value.
  • Continuing because of past investment? Sunk Cost Release — decide from today forward, not from yesterday.
  • Not sure you know enough to decide? Circle of Competence — map what you genuinely know against what you think you know.
  • Immediate emotion dominating the decision? 10/10/10 Rule — compare how you will feel in 10 minutes, 10 months, and 10 years. Developed by Suzy Welch, the 10/10/10 rule gives each time horizon a voice before one mood decides.
  • Assumptions doing too much work? First Principles Thinking — strip away borrowed conclusions and rebuild from what is actually true.
Clear Thinking by Shane Parrish5 essays

Premortem Analysis

A premortem exercise helps you imagine failure before a decision is locked in, name specific risks, and choose safeguards while there is still time.

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Clear Thinking by Shane Parrish5 essays

Second-Order Thinking

Second-order thinking helps you look past the first result of a decision and map consequences before a quick win becomes a long-term cost.

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Clear Thinking by Shane Parrish4 essays

Inversion

Inversion thinking helps you make better decisions by asking what would guarantee failure, then removing those causes before you act.

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Thinking, Fast and Slow by Daniel Kahneman1 essay

Loss Aversion Reframe

Loss aversion examples in decision making: see how fear of losing money, status, or certainty can distort choices before risk and upside are compared.

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Thinking, Fast and Slow by Daniel Kahneman3 essays

Sunk Cost Release

Sunk cost release helps you stop letting past investments decide your next move when future value no longer justifies staying.

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Clear Thinking by Shane Parrish2 essays

Circle of Competence

Circle of competence helps you decide what you truly understand, what you only think you know, and where to seek help.

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10-10-10 by Suzy Welch

10/10/10 Rule

The 10/10/10 rule compares how a decision may feel in 10 minutes, 10 months, and 10 years.

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Aristotle7 essays

First Principles Thinking

First principles thinking rebuilds a decision from what is actually true, not from inherited assumptions or copied answers.

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Templates and articles

Think through a decision

ClearMind guides you through a structured framework, reflects your thinking back with patterns and blind spots, and saves the session to your decision journal. You do the thinking — the AI provides the structure.

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