·4 min read
Premortem Template: Find the Failure Before It Happens
A practical premortem template for spotting risks before a decision, project, career move, or business idea fails.
Framework
Premortem Analysis
A premortem gives fear a job: not to paralyze the decision, but to reveal specific risks before the plan is locked in. You assume the decision already failed, then work backwards to find the causes you can still prevent.
From Clear Thinking by Shane Parrish
When this helps
- A plan feels exciting, but the downside would be expensive, public, or hard to reverse.
- A team is aligned too quickly and nobody wants to be the difficult voice in the room.
- You need a practical risk list before choosing safeguards, owners, or next checkpoints.
How to use it
Step 1
Name the failed outcome
Write the decision as if it already happened and failed. Describe the failure in concrete terms, not vague dread.
Step 2
Work backwards to likely causes
List the controllable choices, ignored signals, and missing information that would have led to that failure.
Step 3
Turn risks into safeguards
Choose the most preventable causes and add a check, owner, deadline, or exit rule before moving forward.
Watch for
- Only naming bad luck instead of choices you can influence.
- Using the exercise to kill a good idea instead of improving it.
- Stopping at vague risks like "execution" or "timing" without naming the mechanism.
Related thinking traps
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Try it now
If this failed six months from now, what would I wish I had noticed today?
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