Framework

Inversion

Inversion changes the question from "How do I succeed?" to "What would make this fail?" That reversal often reveals obvious mistakes, hidden assumptions, and preventable damage faster than positive planning alone.

From Clear Thinking by Shane Parrish

When this helps

  • The path forward feels too abstract or crowded with possible options.
  • You want to reduce avoidable mistakes before optimizing for upside.
  • You are stuck because every positive plan sounds equally plausible.

How to use it

Step 1

Define the bad outcome

Describe the result you most want to avoid, using concrete details rather than a general fear.

Step 2

List how to cause it

Write the actions, omissions, incentives, and assumptions that would reliably create that bad outcome.

Step 3

Remove the causes

Choose the most preventable causes and design the decision so those mistakes are harder to make.

Watch for

  • Mistaking pessimism for inversion; the point is prevention, not despair.
  • Listing outcomes you cannot control while ignoring behaviors you can change.
  • Forgetting to return to the positive decision after removing the worst paths.

Related thinking traps

Read next

Try it now

What would I do if I were trying to make this decision fail?

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