·4 min read
Cognitive Bias Checklist: 8 Traps to Check Before a Big Decision
A practical cognitive bias checklist for checking confirmation bias, sunk cost, loss aversion, hindsight, and overthinking before a big decision.
Framework
Inversion
Inversion thinking changes the question from "How do I succeed?" to "What would make this fail?" That reversal often reveals preventable mistakes, hidden assumptions, and confirmation bias faster than positive planning alone.
From Clear Thinking by Shane Parrish
When this helps
- The path forward feels crowded with options and every positive plan sounds plausible.
- You want to reduce avoidable mistakes before optimizing for upside.
- You suspect you are looking for confirming evidence instead of testing the decision.
How to use it
Step 1
Define the bad outcome
Describe the result you most want to avoid, using concrete details rather than a general fear.
Step 2
List how to cause it
Write the actions, omissions, incentives, and assumptions that would reliably create that bad outcome.
Step 3
Remove the causes
Choose the most preventable causes and design the decision so those mistakes are harder to make.
Watch for
- Mistaking pessimism for inversion; the point is prevention, not despair.
- Listing outcomes you cannot control while ignoring behaviors you can change.
- Forgetting to return to the positive decision after removing the worst paths.
Related thinking traps
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·3 min read
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Try it now
What would I do if I were trying to make this decision fail?
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