·3 min read
How to Stop Overthinking a Big Decision
A practical framework for escaping decision paralysis: define the real decision, separate facts from assumptions, name the fear, and choose the next clear step.
Premortem AnalysisWriting
Thinking clearly about decisions
Practical essays on cognitive biases, mental frameworks, and the art of deciding well.
Premortem AnalysisSecond-Order ThinkingInversionLoss Aversion ReframeSunk Cost ReleaseCircle of CompetenceFirst Principles Thinking
·3 min read
When You Can Trust an Expert's Intuition (And When You Can't)
Skilled intuition only works in regular environments: chess, nurses, firefighters. In zero-validity worlds like the stock market, trust the data, not your gut.
Circle of Competence·3 min read
The Gambler's Fallacy: Why Streaks Lie (My Mom's Mahjong Lesson)
My mom calls her mahjong winning streaks lucky. Monte Carlo gamblers lost millions doing the same in 1913. Why the gambler's fallacy keeps tricking your bets.
Second-Order Thinking·2 min read
Information Asymmetry: Why You Can't Predict the Market
Markets price what we don't know. Chaos theory, the 2008 crash, and the limit of prediction: why staying within your circle of competence beats forecasting.
Circle of Competence·2 min read
The Power of Being Powerless: Why Great Leaders Stay Soft
Lao Tzu, water, and the mentor who only said 'shut up and listen': why the greatest leaders win by being soft. The case for power as service, not control.
Inversion·3 min read
Probability vs Plausibility: How a Good Story Tricks Your Brain
Bayesian thinking shows why a vivid story beats a base rate, and why your conjunction fallacy keeps choosing the wrong answer about a stranger named Karen.
First Principles Thinking·2 min read
How to Stop Regret From Destroying Your Future Decisions
Regret is a counterfactual emotion, a punishment we hand ourselves for a road not taken. Why 'what if' destroys decisions, and how to turn it into 'so what'.
Loss Aversion Reframe·2 min read
Paint Your Mirror: Three Habits to Sharpen Self-Awareness
Self-awareness is a mirror you paint with attention. Three habits to keep the reflection honest: read more, judge less, and design a routine you follow.
First Principles Thinking·3 min read
The Art of Being Invincible: Strategy, Game Theory, and Why Price Wars Lose
Sun Tzu, Nash equilibrium, and the price war: the art of strategy isn't winning but staying invincible. Why competing on price always leaves both sides poorer.
Second-Order Thinking·3 min read
How to Escape the Sunk Cost Trap in Your Career
Sunk cost quietly drags careers off course. Why your past investments feel like reasons to stay, and how to stop letting them block the next move you need.
Sunk Cost Release·4 min read
Survivorship Bias and the Hidden Lies in Your Data
Returning bombers showed where to put armour, until Abraham Wald spotted the trap. Survivorship bias quietly shapes the data you trust to make decisions.
First Principles Thinking·3 min read
What You See Is All There Is: Kahneman's Trap and How to Beat It
Kahneman's WYSIATI explains why smart people make confident wrong decisions, and how a decision matrix surfaces the blind spots you didn't know you had.
First Principles Thinking·3 min read
Confirmation Bias: Why Smart People Read Data Wrong
Confirmation bias quietly distorts how we read data, from giver-vs-taker rankings to billion-dollar education bets. Here is why the elephant is too big.
First Principles Thinking·2 min read
Doubt Your Doubts: A 5-Question Test Before You React
Many of our thoughts are doubts that sprout into whole stories. A five-question test, learned the hard way, helps decide which doubts are worth chasing.
First Principles Thinking·2 min read
The Narrative Fallacy: When Good Stories Make Bad Decisions
The narrative fallacy is the cognitive bias that lets a good story stand in for actual evidence. Here is how it shapes our decisions, and our marketing.
First Principles Thinking·2 min read
Premortem: Imagine the Failure Before It Happens
Premortem analysis: imagine the project has already failed, then work backwards to find why. A method for catching overconfidence before it costs you.
Premortem Analysis·3 min read
Trust but Verify: How Givers Can Spot Takers Before Burning Out
Givers earn less, burn out more, and still reach the top of the success ladder. Use sincerity screening to spot takers before you default to generosity.
Inversion